In a bold policy shift on April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump unveiled a blanket tariff on all imported goods into the United States—a move that’s rattling trade partners worldwide, including Nigeria. Dubbed the “Universal Baseline Tariff”, this sweeping measure slaps a 10% duty on all incoming products, with extra penalties for nations deemed to have unfair trade practices.
While oil and energy products are exempt from the policy, Nigeria’s non-oil exports—worth over N323.96 billion in 2024 alone—are now directly in the firing line.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows Nigeria earned around N4.49 trillion from crude oil and energy product exports to the U.S. in 2024. These energy commodities—mainly petroleum oils and gases—have been spared from the tariff blow, maintaining their stronghold in the U.S. market.
But it’s a different story for Nigeria’s expanding line-up of non-oil goods. The same year saw the country ship N323.96 billion worth of non-oil exports to America. Now, these products face a new 14% tariff that could upend pricing, demand, and competitiveness.
Breaking Down the Numbers: Nigeria’s Quarterly Export Trends
Q1 2024: A Modest Start
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Total non-oil exports to the U.S.: N74.79bn
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Key products:
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Soya bean flour and meals: N28.21bn
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Urea (fertilizer): N20.33bn
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Refined lead: N14.40bn
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Cashew nuts (in shell): N11.09bn
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Natural rubber: N769m
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These goods, representing Nigeria’s growing strength in agriculture and raw materials, laid the groundwork for what became a record-setting year.
Q2: Surge in Fertilizer Exports
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Exports climbed to N123.23bn
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Urea skyrocketed to N86.54bn, driving the surge
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Lead, soya flour, and rubber followed
This spike underlined Nigeria’s emergence as a key player in the global fertilizer market, especially among U.S. agricultural buyers.
Q3: Cocoa Joins the Party
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Exports dipped slightly to N84.38bn
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Urea remained strong at N39.20bn
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Cocoa beans entered the mix at N14.48bn
Cocoa’s appearance marked a milestone, signaling Nigeria’s deeper integration into international agribusiness.
Q4: A Disappointing Close
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Exports fell to N42.55bn
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Cocoa led with N29.92bn
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Other items included aluminium alloys, cathodes, and food preparations
Despite a stellar showing for cocoa, overall volumes declined, pointing to a narrower export mix and growing volatility in demand.
What’s Now at Risk?
1. Urea (N146.06bn in 2024)
Nigeria’s most valuable non-oil export to the U.S. now faces stiff competition as the new tariff inflates prices for American buyers.
2. Cocoa Beans (N44.40bn in H2 2024)
Used in everything from chocolate to beauty products, cocoa is central to U.S. manufacturing. But with higher costs, buyers may turn to other suppliers like Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire.
3. Refined Lead (N55.23bn)
As the U.S. doubles down on domestic mining, Nigerian lead could fall out of favor.
4. Soya Meals (N44.43bn)
A staple in animal feed production, soya meals are now less price-competitive.
5. Natural Rubber (N14.5bn)
In a market where cost is king, rubber buyers might pivot to other low-cost producers.
Adding fuel to the fire, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) recently criticized Nigeria’s longstanding ban on 25 import categories. These include beef, poultry, fruit juices, pharmaceuticals, and alcoholic beverages. According to the USTR, these restrictions limit access for U.S. exporters and stifle potential revenue.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the agency stated:
“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for U.S. businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market.”
Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, acknowledged the blow. In her words:
“The new 10% tariff on key categories may undermine the competitiveness of Nigerian goods in the U.S., especially in value-added sectors critical to our diversification goals.”
She emphasized that although oil dominates exports (over 90%), the rising share of non-oil exports—particularly fertilizers and agricultural products—now faces steep challenges.
Wale Edun, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, adopted a calmer tone. He noted that since 92% of exports are oil and minerals, the impact of the tariff would be “negligible” in the short term. Edun pointed out:
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In 2024 alone, Nigeria exported N5.52tn worth of goods to the U.S.
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Of that, non-oil exports only accounted for N0.44tn
However, he admitted that the government is reevaluating its economic assumptions to prepare for potential future fallout.
Analysts argue that the ripple effect could slow manufacturing, dampen demand, and chip away at living standards. With U.S. buyers looking elsewhere, Nigerian exporters may find themselves in a scramble to secure alternative markets or renegotiate terms.
Trade data supports these concerns:
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Over the past 10 years, trade between Nigeria and the U.S. totaled N31.1tn
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Exports: N16.4tn | Imports: N14.71tn
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Trade surplus: N1.64tn
Still, the tides may be shifting.
Jeremy Awori, CEO of Ecobank Transnational Inc., has called on African nations to boost intra-African trade as a buffer against rising global protectionism.
His message is clear: Africa can’t afford to rely solely on external markets—especially when the rules are changing overnight.
The Trump administration’s latest tariff salvo is a wake-up call for Nigeria. While oil remains untouched, the country's push to diversify its exports has hit a major roadblock. To stay competitive, Nigeria must now recalibrate its trade strategy, deepen regional ties, and explore new global opportunities.