Rice Just Got Cheaper—So Why Aren’t People Buying?
It’s not often you hear about prices going down in Nigeria—especially when it comes to staples like rice. But in an unexpected twist, a 50kg bag of rice has seen its price plummet by 27% in some rural parts of the country, dropping from a high of ₦80,000 to as low as ₦58,000.
Sounds like good news, right? Not so fast.
According to a new report from S&P Global, while prices have dropped, many buyers are still playing the waiting game. Instead of rushing to fill their pantries, they’re cautiously watching the market, expecting prices to dip even further. It’s a surprising turn in a country grappling with one of the highest food inflation rates in recent years.
What’s Behind the Sudden Price Drop?
To understand this shift, we have to look beyond Nigeria’s borders.
The key driver is India’s recent decision to lift export duties on parboiled rice. That policy move has unleashed a surge of lower-cost rice into the West African market—particularly through Benin Republic, which has become a sort of unofficial rice gateway into Nigeria.
As a result, warehouses in Cotonou and surrounding towns are now packed to the brim. The glut of inventory has triggered a regional price slump not seen in nearly two years.
"There’s just too much supply chasing limited demand," the report noted. "Prices are falling daily, so consumers are holding off, waiting for the bottom."
The Reality on the Ground: A Mixed Bag
Despite the drop in remote areas, not all Nigerians are seeing this price relief.
A quick check at popular urban markets like Kubwa and Dutse in Abuja shows a different picture. As of Monday evening, prices there are still hovering between ₦81,000 and ₦115,000, depending on whether you’re buying local or imported brands.
This kind of pricing mismatch isn’t new. Urban vs. rural price disparities are a recurring theme in Nigeria’s fragmented supply chain. Add transport costs, storage challenges, and middlemen markups to the mix, and what you get is a price rollercoaster with no clear peak—or bottom.
Smuggling Still a Massive Problem
Here’s where things get even more complicated.
According to the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), rice remains the most smuggled product in the country. In its Q1 2025 report, the agency reported seizing over 135,000 bags of smuggled rice valued at nearly ₦940 million.
Next on the list? Petroleum products. Over 65,000 litres of fuel were seized during the same period—worth around ₦43 million.
“Rice continues to dominate the list of smuggled items, which shows the demand pressure and the ongoing challenges with local production and border controls,” said NCS Comptroller General Bashir Adeniyi.
Inflation Still Biting Hard
Even with falling rice prices in certain areas, the bigger picture still looks grim for consumers.
The latest Consumer Price Index report (March 2025) from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) paints a sobering picture:
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Headline inflation: 24.23%
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Food inflation: 21.79%
These numbers mean one thing—most Nigerians are still paying more for less. So, while rice prices may be cooling temporarily, the broader cost-of-living crisis is far from over.
So… What Happens Next?
It’s a classic case of “wait and see.” With prices in flux and a wary consumer base, traders are left with full inventories and slow turnover. Unless demand picks up—or supply slows down—this downward trend could continue for weeks.
But for many Nigerians, affordability isn’t just about falling prices. It’s about consistency. Can I afford it next week? Will prices spike again next month?
Until there’s stability across the board, don’t expect shoppers to rush in just yet.
Final Thoughts
Falling rice prices might sound like a win, but the full story is more layered. From shifting global trade policies to rampant smuggling and persistent inflation, Nigeria’s food economy is riding out a perfect storm.
The good news? The market is moving. The challenge? Getting it to move in a way that benefits everyday Nigerians.
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