Trade War Fallout: Tinubu’s Economic Team Steps In
As the global financial landscape reels from fresh U.S. tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, Nigeria is taking a hard look at its own economic trajectory. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's Economic Management Team (EMT) is currently evaluating potential fallout scenarios and preparing strategic recommendations for the federal government.
At the center of this effort is Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, who confirmed during a press interaction in Abuja that the EMT is actively reviewing the situation. While there’s no official decision yet, a revision of Nigeria’s 2025 budget may be on the table depending on how these developments unfold.
The shockwaves of the new U.S. tariff policy are already being felt on the home front. The naira slipped again, closing at ₦1,629 to the dollar in the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM)—a 1.81% drop from Friday’s rate of ₦1,600.
Over in the parallel market, the story wasn’t any better. The naira fell to ₦1,565 per dollar, down from ₦1,550—a sharp ₦15 drop in just one day, driven by growing demand and persistent supply constraints.
Even with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent injection of $197.71 million to calm the waters, the naira’s volatility mirrors the uncertainty rippling through global markets. On April 7, data from NAFEM showed rates fluctuating between ₦1,590 and ₦1,655 per dollar, with an average of ₦1,612.23.
Trump’s tariff salvo has caused more than just currency jitters. Stock markets across continents took a nosedive. The S&P 500 tumbled over 10% in just three sessions—its worst run since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. Oil prices also dipped, falling to $61 per barrel, and copper, often seen as a bellwether for industrial health, followed suit.
Meanwhile, President Trump remains defiant. On Truth Social, he warned China of an impending 50% tariff hike unless they backtrack on their recent 34% levy increase. Talks with other countries may be on the table, but his administration insists the tariffs will take effect as scheduled on April 9.
In the midst of this economic storm, Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S. remains resilient—at least for now. According to Edun, Nigeria has enjoyed a trade surplus with the U.S. over the past three years. In 2022, exports stood at ₦1.8 trillion; by 2024, they had surged to ₦5.5 trillion.
Crucially, 92% of that came from oil and mineral exports, valued at approximately ₦5.08 trillion. Non-oil exports, by comparison, totaled only ₦0.44 trillion. With the U.S. exempting mineral exports from its latest tariffs, Edun believes Nigeria may be shielded from the worst impacts—so long as oil prices remain stable.
However, the real concern is not tariffs, but oil price volatility. Nigeria is racing to ramp up crude production to soften any potential blow. Additionally, the government is doubling down on non-oil revenue mobilization through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and Customs.
Speaking at the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) Corporate Governance Forum, Edun emphasized the need for smart spending. Budget adjustments, expenditure prioritization, and innovative non-debt financing strategies are being explored as part of the EMT’s broader toolkit.
The theme of the event, “Ensuring Value Creation in State-Owned Enterprises Through Better Corporate Governance,” couldn’t have been more timely. Edun stressed that robust corporate governance is fundamental in building investor trust and fostering economic resilience.
State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economy. From energy and infrastructure to telecoms and finance, their influence cuts across key sectors. But inefficiencies and governance lapses have long held them back.
MOFI’s Managing Director, Dr. Armstrong Takang, introduced a new corporate governance scorecard aimed at aligning SOEs with international best practices and regulatory standards. According to him, this initiative is not just about compliance—it’s about ensuring these enterprises contribute meaningfully to national development.
MOFI is also conducting an asset monetization drive and due diligence on state-owned assets. An annual asset report is in the works, and early findings suggest that the total asset value will significantly surpass the ₦18.2 trillion previously declared.
Dr. Ndiaye Diop, outgoing World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, echoed the call for transparency. Now elevated to Regional VP at the World Bank, Diop noted that strong corporate governance and transparent reporting are crucial to maximizing government revenue and minimizing waste.
As Nigeria navigates these choppy economic waters, consistent oversight and credible reforms could make all the difference.
With over 50 countries expressing interest in negotiations, and the White House refusing to back down, the global tariff war could still spiral further. The “fear gauge” on Wall Street—an index that tracks market volatility—soared past 60, a level not seen since bear markets.
Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, didn’t mince words on X: “The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out…or we’re heading for an economic nuclear winter.”
And while a brief market rally was sparked by a false rumor of a tariff pause, the White House quickly debunked it—sending stocks sliding again.
For Nigeria, the moment calls for level-headed planning, strategic resilience, and a renewed focus on domestic strengths. As the global economy reshuffles, those who adapt the fastest may be the ones who come out on top.