U.S. Imports from Nigeria Dip Ahead of Tariff Deadline
In the first two months of 2025, the United States brought in roughly $643.1 million worth of goods from Nigeria—just ahead of new tariffs scheduled to kick in on April 9 under former President Donald Trump's trade directive. While this figure may seem sizable, it actually represents a notable decline from the same period in 2024, when imports stood at $951.6 million.
But not all is doom and gloom. Crude oil and mineral resources—Nigeria's largest exports to the U.S.—have been spared from the incoming tariff wave. That exemption is a major lifeline for the country’s economy.
Breaking down the numbers reveals a more nuanced picture. February 2025 saw U.S. customs-based imports from Nigeria totaling $286.3 million, down from $423.6 million in February 2024—a 32.4% plunge. On the CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) side, imports dropped from $436.3 million to $298.4 million year-over-year for February, a 31.6% slide.
Overall, from January through February 2025, CIF-based imports dropped to $666.3 million, compared to $979.6 million in the same period of 2024—a 32% decrease. Clearly, the shift in trade activity is already taking shape even before the new tariffs are officially enforced.
Interestingly, Nigeria’s trade balance has actually improved. In February 2025 alone, the U.S. reported a customs-based trade surplus of $187.2 million with Nigeria, up from just $77.3 million the previous year. That’s a 142.2% improvement.
On a year-to-date basis, the tables turned from a $158.8 million deficit in early 2024 to a $44.3 million surplus in 2025—a solid 127.9% turnaround.
Total Trade Value Surpasses $1.3 Billion
Altogether, trade between the two countries reached approximately $1.33 billion in January and February 2025. That includes both imports and exports, underscoring the ongoing strength of U.S.-Nigeria commercial ties—tariffs or not.
Exports from Nigeria to the U.S. under the Free Alongside Ship (FAS) basis totaled $473.6 million in February 2025, a slight dip from the $501 million recorded in the same month a year prior. That’s a 5.5% decrease. Year-to-date, FAS exports fell from $792.8 million in 2024 to $687.4 million in 2025—a 13.3% drop.
January 2025 started off rough for the U.S., which ran a trade deficit with Nigeria to the tune of $143 million. But the very next month, the situation flipped dramatically. With a $187 million surplus in February, the U.S. ended up with a positive year-to-date balance of $44 million.
This shift was fueled largely by a significant jump in Nigerian exports, which surged from $214 million in January to $474 million in February—an eye-catching 121.5% increase. Imports, on the other hand, slid from $357 million to $286 million during the same period.
Crude Oil Still Dominates Nigerian Exports
Oil continues to be the crown jewel in Nigeria’s export portfolio. In the first two months of 2025 alone, the U.S. imported crude oil worth $413.6 million from Nigeria, translating to around 5.3 million barrels.
However, the volume and value of crude oil shipments dropped in February compared to January. The U.S. bought 1.8 million barrels in February for $142.2 million, down from 3.5 million barrels in January valued at $271.4 million—a 47.6% decrease month-over-month.
The CIF value mirrored this trend: February oil imports stood at $146.2 million, compared to $278.2 million in January. That’s a 47.4% drop, pushing the total CIF value for January and February to $424.4 million.
Crude oil alone accounted for over 64% of Nigeria’s total exports to the U.S. in early 2025, underscoring its significance in bilateral trade.
Although the new 14% U.S. tariff on Nigerian exports spares oil and minerals, concerns are mounting for other sectors. Products like agricultural goods and manufactured items, which had previously benefited from trade-friendly policies under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), may now struggle to stay competitive.
Economists and trade experts warn that the tariff hike could jack up prices for American consumers, slow down Nigeria's manufacturing sector, and make it harder for the country to sustain its current level of trade with the U.S.
Finance Minister: Tariff Impact Likely to Be Mild
Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, addressed the issue recently, stating that the impact of the tariff hike on Nigeria’s economy will be "negligible" due to the exclusion of oil and mineral exports.
Speaking at the Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, Edun highlighted that Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. hit ₦5.5 trillion in 2024, with oil and minerals accounting for ₦5.08 trillion—around 92% of total exports.
"Compared to tariffs faced by other nations—Vietnam at 46%, China at 34%—Nigeria’s 14% is relatively mild," Edun noted.
Despite the optimistic tone, Edun confirmed that Nigeria’s economic management team is keeping a close eye on shifting global dynamics. "We’re going back to the drawing board," he said, noting the need to reassess budget assumptions based on real-world developments in Q1 2025.
Still, industry watchers are ringing alarm bells. According to economic analysts, the new trade barriers could undermine Nigeria’s $10 billion annual exports to the U.S. by weakening demand and making Nigerian products less attractive.
Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, echoed this sentiment. She warned that the tariff might severely impact Nigeria’s competitiveness in the American market.
Nigeria-U.S. Trade in the Last Decade: ₦31 Trillion
Between 2015 and 2024, Nigeria’s trade with the United States totaled ₦31.1 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Of this amount, ₦16.4 trillion came from exports and ₦14.71 trillion from imports—leaving Nigeria with a surplus of ₦1.64 trillion over the decade.
That decade-long overview helps frame today’s developments as part of a broader trade story—one with highs, lows, and plenty of moving parts still to come.